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2020 Senate · MA

MassINC Polling Group · fieldwork ended 2020-10-27 (7 days before the election) · 929 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 60% · Republican 29%

D+31.0

The certified result

Democrat 66.15% · Republican 33.05%

D+33.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 60 − 29 = 31.00
  2. Actual margin = 66.154 − 33.045 = 33.109
  3. Signed miss = 31.00 − (33.109) = -2.109
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.109| = 2.109

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72715, race ID 6278 (538 database).