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2020 Senate · GA

Landmark Communications · fieldwork ended 2020-11-01 (2 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR/Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46.9% · Republican 49%

R+2.1

The certified result

Democrat 47.95% · Republican 49.73%

R+1.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.9 − 49 = -2.10
  2. Actual margin = 47.949 − 49.728 = -1.779
  3. Signed miss = -2.10 − (-1.779) = -0.321
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.321| = 0.321

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72661, race ID 6271 (538 database).