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2020 President · GA

Landmark Communications · fieldwork ended 2020-11-01 (2 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR/Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 50.1%

R+4.1

The certified result

Democrat 49.47% · Republican 49.24%

D+0.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 50.1 = -4.10
  2. Actual margin = 49.473 − 49.237 = 0.236
  3. Signed miss = -4.10 − (0.236) = -4.336
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.336| = 4.336

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.3 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72661, race ID 6221 (538 database).