Skip to content

2020 President · OH

AtlasIntel · fieldwork ended 2020-10-29 (5 days before the election) · 660 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 46.5% · Republican 50.4%

R+3.9

The certified result

Democrat 45.24% · Republican 53.27%

R+8.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.5 − 50.4 = -3.90
  2. Actual margin = 45.239 − 53.271 = -8.032
  3. Signed miss = -3.90 − (-8.032) = 4.132
  4. Absolute miss = |4.132| = 4.132

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72657, race ID 6246 (538 database).