2020 Senate · AZ
Marist College · fieldwork ended 2020-10-31 (3 days before the election) · 717 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 52% · Republican 46%
D+6.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.16% · Republican 48.81%
D+2.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 52 − 46 = 6.00
- Actual margin = 51.157 − 48.808 = 2.349
- Signed miss = 6.00 − (2.349) = 3.651
- Absolute miss = |3.651| = 3.651
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72649, race ID 6268 (538 database).