Skip to content

2020 President · AZ

Marist College · fieldwork ended 2020-10-31 (3 days before the election) · 717 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 48%

even

The certified result

Democrat 49.37% · Republican 49.06%

D+0.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 48 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.365 − 49.056 = 0.309
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (0.309) = -0.309
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.309| = 0.309

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.3 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72649, race ID 6214 (538 database).