2020 Senate · NJ
Research Co. · fieldwork ended 2020-10-31 (3 days before the election) · 450 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 55% · Republican 32%
D+23.0
The certified result
Democrat 57.23% · Republican 40.92%
D+16.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 55 − 32 = 23.00
- Actual margin = 57.228 − 40.921 = 16.307
- Signed miss = 23.00 − (16.307) = 6.692
- Absolute miss = |6.692| = 6.692
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72626, race ID 6287 (538 database).