2020 President · IL
Research Co. · fieldwork ended 2020-10-31 (3 days before the election) · 450 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 55% · Republican 38%
D+17.0
The certified result
Democrat 57.54% · Republican 40.55%
D+17.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 55 − 38 = 17.00
- Actual margin = 57.542 − 40.553 = 16.989
- Signed miss = 17.00 − (16.989) = 0.012
- Absolute miss = |0.012| = 0.012
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72623, race ID 6225 (538 database).