2020 President · MI
Targoz Market Research · fieldwork ended 2020-10-27 (7 days before the election) · 993 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 53% · Republican 39%
D+14.0
The certified result
Democrat 50.62% · Republican 47.84%
D+2.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 53 − 39 = 14.00
- Actual margin = 50.621 − 47.837 = 2.784
- Signed miss = 14.00 − (2.784) = 11.216
- Absolute miss = |11.216| = 11.216
The poll overstated the Democrat by 11.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72587, race ID 6233 (538 database).