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2020 President · OH

Civiqs · fieldwork ended 2020-10-31 (3 days before the election) · 1,136 respondents · Online Panel/Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 49%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.24% · Republican 53.27%

R+8.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 49 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.239 − 53.271 = -8.032
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (-8.032) = 7.032
  4. Absolute miss = |7.032| = 7.032

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72578, race ID 6246 (538 database).