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2020 President · WI

Civiqs · fieldwork ended 2020-10-31 (3 days before the election) · 789 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 47%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.45% · Republican 48.82%

D+0.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 47 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.450 − 48.822 = 0.628
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (0.628) = 3.373
  4. Absolute miss = |3.373| = 3.373

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72576, race ID 6259 (538 database).