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2020 Senate · TX

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2020-10-30 (4 days before the election) · 763 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 51%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.87% · Republican 53.51%

R+9.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 51 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.869 − 53.508 = -9.639
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (-9.639) = 5.639
  4. Absolute miss = |5.639| = 5.639

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72518, race ID 6295 (538 database).