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2020 President · GA

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2020-10-30 (4 days before the election) · 749 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 48.8% · Republican 49.4%

R+0.6

The certified result

Democrat 49.47% · Republican 49.24%

D+0.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.8 − 49.4 = -0.60
  2. Actual margin = 49.473 − 49.237 = 0.236
  3. Signed miss = -0.60 − (0.236) = -0.836
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.836| = 0.836

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.8 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72517, race ID 6221 (538 database).