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2020 President · PA

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2020-10-29 (5 days before the election) · 823 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 51.5% · Republican 46.6%

D+4.9

The certified result

Democrat 50.01% · Republican 48.84%

D+1.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51.5 − 46.6 = 4.90
  2. Actual margin = 50.008 − 48.844 = 1.164
  3. Signed miss = 4.90 − (1.164) = 3.735
  4. Absolute miss = |3.735| = 3.735

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72510, race ID 6249 (538 database).