2020 Senate · MN
St. Cloud State University · fieldwork ended 2020-10-20 (14 days before the election) · 372 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 53% · Republican 36%
D+17.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.74% · Republican 43.50%
D+5.2
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 53 − 36 = 17.00
- Actual margin = 48.737 − 43.498 = 5.239
- Signed miss = 17.00 − (5.239) = 11.762
- Absolute miss = |11.762| = 11.762
The poll overstated the Democrat by 11.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72503, race ID 6281 (538 database).