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2020 President · WI

AtlasIntel · fieldwork ended 2020-10-30 (4 days before the election) · 781 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 50.6% · Republican 48.7%

D+1.9

The certified result

Democrat 49.45% · Republican 48.82%

D+0.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50.6 − 48.7 = 1.90
  2. Actual margin = 49.450 − 48.822 = 0.628
  3. Signed miss = 1.90 − (0.628) = 1.273
  4. Absolute miss = |1.273| = 1.273

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72502, race ID 6259 (538 database).