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2020 President · AZ

AtlasIntel · fieldwork ended 2020-10-30 (4 days before the election) · 641 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48.1% · Republican 50.4%

R+2.3

The certified result

Democrat 49.37% · Republican 49.06%

D+0.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.1 − 50.4 = -2.30
  2. Actual margin = 49.365 − 49.056 = 0.309
  3. Signed miss = -2.30 − (0.309) = -2.609
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.609| = 2.609

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.6 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72500, race ID 6214 (538 database).