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2020 Senate · AZ

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2020-10-30 (4 days before the election) · 732 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 50.3% · Republican 47.6%

D+2.7

The certified result

Democrat 51.16% · Republican 48.81%

D+2.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50.3 − 47.6 = 2.70
  2. Actual margin = 51.157 − 48.808 = 2.349
  3. Signed miss = 2.70 − (2.349) = 0.351
  4. Absolute miss = |0.351| = 0.351

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72495, race ID 6268 (538 database).