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2020 Senate · MI

Mitchell Research & Communications · fieldwork ended 2020-10-29 (5 days before the election) · 817 respondents · IVR/Text

The poll said

Democrat 50.3% · Republican 44.9%

D+5.4

The certified result

Democrat 49.90% · Republican 48.22%

D+1.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50.3 − 44.9 = 5.40
  2. Actual margin = 49.903 − 48.218 = 1.685
  3. Signed miss = 5.40 − (1.685) = 3.715
  4. Absolute miss = |3.715| = 3.715

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72493, race ID 6280 (538 database).