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2020 Senate · MI

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2020-10-30 (4 days before the election) · 700 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 51.8% · Republican 46%

D+5.8

The certified result

Democrat 49.90% · Republican 48.22%

D+1.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51.8 − 46 = 5.80
  2. Actual margin = 49.903 − 48.218 = 1.685
  3. Signed miss = 5.80 − (1.685) = 4.115
  4. Absolute miss = |4.115| = 4.115

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72487, race ID 6280 (538 database).