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2020 President · FL

St. Pete Polls · fieldwork ended 2020-10-29 (5 days before the election) · 2,758 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 49.2% · Republican 48.1%

D+1.1

The certified result

Democrat 47.86% · Republican 51.22%

R+3.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49.2 − 48.1 = 1.10
  2. Actual margin = 47.861 − 51.220 = -3.359
  3. Signed miss = 1.10 − (-3.359) = 4.458
  4. Absolute miss = |4.458| = 4.458

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.5 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72484, race ID 6220 (538 database).