2020 Senate · MI
EPIC-MRA · fieldwork ended 2020-10-27 (7 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 47% · Republican 42%
D+5.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.90% · Republican 48.22%
D+1.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 47 − 42 = 5.00
- Actual margin = 49.903 − 48.218 = 1.685
- Signed miss = 5.00 − (1.685) = 3.315
- Absolute miss = |3.315| = 3.315
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72483, race ID 6280 (538 database).