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2020 President · WI

Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. · fieldwork ended 2020-10-30 (4 days before the election) · 450 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 46%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.45% · Republican 48.82%

D+0.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 46 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.450 − 48.822 = 0.628
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (0.628) = 2.373
  4. Absolute miss = |2.373| = 2.373

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72419, race ID 6259 (538 database).