2020 President · NC
SSRS · fieldwork ended 2020-10-27 (7 days before the election) · 901 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 51% · Republican 45%
D+6.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.59% · Republican 49.93%
R+1.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 51 − 45 = 6.00
- Actual margin = 48.586 − 49.934 = -1.348
- Signed miss = 6.00 − (-1.348) = 7.348
- Absolute miss = |7.348| = 7.348
The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.3 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72418, race ID 6238 (538 database).