2020 Senate · AZ
SSRS · fieldwork ended 2020-10-27 (7 days before the election) · 865 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 52% · Republican 45%
D+7.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.16% · Republican 48.81%
D+2.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 52 − 45 = 7.00
- Actual margin = 51.157 − 48.808 = 2.349
- Signed miss = 7.00 − (2.349) = 4.651
- Absolute miss = |4.651| = 4.651
The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72417, race ID 6268 (538 database).