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2020 House · NE-2

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2020-10-29 (5 days before the election) · 806 respondents · IVR/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 47.5% · Republican 50.5%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.21% · Republican 50.77%

R+4.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.5 − 50.5 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.209 − 50.769 = -4.560
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (-4.560) = 1.560
  4. Absolute miss = |1.560| = 1.560

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72413, race ID 8069 (538 database).