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2020 President · N2

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2020-10-29 (5 days before the election) · 806 respondents · IVR/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 50.4% · Republican 47.8%

D+2.6

The certified result

Democrat 51.95% · Republican 45.45%

D+6.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50.4 − 47.8 = 2.60
  2. Actual margin = 51.953 − 45.450 = 6.503
  3. Signed miss = 2.60 − (6.503) = -3.904
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.904| = 3.904

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72410, race ID 8718 (538 database).