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2020 President · WI

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2020-10-29 (5 days before the election) · 751 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 52.7% · Republican 45.4%

D+7.3

The certified result

Democrat 49.45% · Republican 48.82%

D+0.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52.7 − 45.4 = 7.30
  2. Actual margin = 49.450 − 48.822 = 0.628
  3. Signed miss = 7.30 − (0.628) = 6.673
  4. Absolute miss = |6.673| = 6.673

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72409, race ID 6259 (538 database).