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2020 President · TX

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2020-10-28 (6 days before the election) · 775 respondents · IVR/Text

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 48%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.48% · Republican 52.06%

R+5.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 48 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.479 − 52.058 = -5.579
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (-5.579) = 7.579
  4. Absolute miss = |7.579| = 7.579

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.6 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72406, race ID 6254 (538 database).