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2020 Governor · MO

Remington Research Group · fieldwork ended 2020-10-28 (6 days before the election) · 1,010 respondents · IVR/Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 50%

R+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 40.69% · Republican 57.11%

R+16.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 50 = -6.00
  2. Actual margin = 40.692 − 57.106 = -16.414
  3. Signed miss = -6.00 − (-16.414) = 10.414
  4. Absolute miss = |10.414| = 10.414

The poll overstated the Democrat by 10.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72404, race ID 7820 (538 database).