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2020 President · MO

Remington Research Group · fieldwork ended 2020-10-28 (6 days before the election) · 1,010 respondents · IVR/Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 50%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 41.41% · Republican 56.80%

R+15.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 50 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.409 − 56.800 = -15.391
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (-15.391) = 10.391
  4. Absolute miss = |10.391| = 10.391

The poll overstated the Democrat by 10.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72404, race ID 6235 (538 database).