2020 Senate · VA
Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research · fieldwork ended 2020-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 802 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 55% · Republican 39%
D+16.0
The certified result
Democrat 55.99% · Republican 43.91%
D+12.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 55 − 39 = 16.00
- Actual margin = 55.992 − 43.908 = 12.084
- Signed miss = 16.00 − (12.084) = 3.916
- Absolute miss = |3.916| = 3.916
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72402, race ID 6296 (538 database).