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2020 President · GA

Landmark Communications · fieldwork ended 2020-10-28 (6 days before the election) · 750 respondents · IVR/Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 48%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.47% · Republican 49.24%

D+0.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 48 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.473 − 49.237 = 0.236
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (0.236) = -1.236
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.236| = 1.236

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.2 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72336, race ID 6221 (538 database).