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2020 Senate · MI

RMG Research · fieldwork ended 2020-10-28 (6 days before the election) · 800 respondents · IVR/Text-to-Web/Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 41%

D+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.90% · Republican 48.22%

D+1.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 41 = 9.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.903 − 48.218 = 1.685
  3. Signed miss = 9.00 − (1.685) = 7.315
  4. Absolute miss = |7.315| = 7.315

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72335, race ID 6280 (538 database).