2020 Senate · MI
Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2020-10-29 (5 days before the election) · 745 respondents · IVR/Text · partisan sponsor (DEM)
The poll said
Democrat 54% · Republican 44%
D+10.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.90% · Republican 48.22%
D+1.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 54 − 44 = 10.00
- Actual margin = 49.903 − 48.218 = 1.685
- Signed miss = 10.00 − (1.685) = 8.315
- Absolute miss = |8.315| = 8.315
The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72333, race ID 6280 (538 database).