2020 Governor · NC
Marist College · fieldwork ended 2020-10-27 (7 days before the election) · 800 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 59% · Republican 40%
D+19.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.52% · Republican 47.01%
D+4.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 59 − 40 = 19.00
- Actual margin = 51.516 − 47.005 = 4.511
- Signed miss = 19.00 − (4.511) = 14.490
- Absolute miss = |14.490| = 14.490
The poll overstated the Democrat by 14.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72331, race ID 7824 (538 database).