2020 Senate · NC
Marist College · fieldwork ended 2020-10-27 (7 days before the election) · 800 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 53% · Republican 43%
D+10.0
The certified result
Democrat 46.94% · Republican 48.69%
R+1.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 53 − 43 = 10.00
- Actual margin = 46.940 − 48.687 = -1.747
- Signed miss = 10.00 − (-1.747) = 11.747
- Absolute miss = |11.747| = 11.747
The poll overstated the Democrat by 11.7 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72331, race ID 6284 (538 database).