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2020 President · WI

Swayable · fieldwork ended 2020-10-25 (9 days before the election) · 313 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 53.7% · Republican 44.9%

D+8.8

The certified result

Democrat 49.45% · Republican 48.82%

D+0.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53.7 − 44.9 = 8.80
  2. Actual margin = 49.450 − 48.822 = 0.628
  3. Signed miss = 8.80 − (0.628) = 8.173
  4. Absolute miss = |8.173| = 8.173

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72310, race ID 6259 (538 database).