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2020 President · VA

Swayable · fieldwork ended 2020-10-25 (9 days before the election) · 351 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 55.2% · Republican 44.3%

D+10.9

The certified result

Democrat 54.11% · Republican 44.00%

D+10.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 55.2 − 44.3 = 10.90
  2. Actual margin = 54.110 − 43.996 = 10.114
  3. Signed miss = 10.90 − (10.114) = 0.786
  4. Absolute miss = |0.786| = 0.786

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72309, race ID 6256 (538 database).