Skip to content

2020 Senate · TX

Swayable · fieldwork ended 2020-10-25 (9 days before the election) · 492 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 47.6% · Republican 52.4%

R+4.8

The certified result

Democrat 43.87% · Republican 53.51%

R+9.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.6 − 52.4 = -4.80
  2. Actual margin = 43.869 − 53.508 = -9.639
  3. Signed miss = -4.80 − (-9.639) = 4.839
  4. Absolute miss = |4.839| = 4.839

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72308, race ID 6295 (538 database).