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2020 President · TX

Swayable · fieldwork ended 2020-10-25 (9 days before the election) · 552 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 47.5% · Republican 48.6%

R+1.1

The certified result

Democrat 46.48% · Republican 52.06%

R+5.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.5 − 48.6 = -1.10
  2. Actual margin = 46.479 − 52.058 = -5.579
  3. Signed miss = -1.10 − (-5.579) = 4.479
  4. Absolute miss = |4.479| = 4.479

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72308, race ID 6254 (538 database).