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2020 President · OH

Swayable · fieldwork ended 2020-10-25 (9 days before the election) · 440 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 43.6% · Republican 55.3%

R+11.7

The certified result

Democrat 45.24% · Republican 53.27%

R+8.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43.6 − 55.3 = -11.70
  2. Actual margin = 45.239 − 53.271 = -8.032
  3. Signed miss = -11.70 − (-8.032) = -3.668
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.668| = 3.668

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72306, race ID 6246 (538 database).