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2020 President · NY

Swayable · fieldwork ended 2020-10-25 (9 days before the election) · 495 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 65.4% · Republican 32.8%

D+32.6

The certified result

Democrat 56.37% · Republican 34.31%

D+22.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 65.4 − 32.8 = 32.60
  2. Actual margin = 56.371 − 34.313 = 22.058
  3. Signed miss = 32.60 − (22.058) = 10.542
  4. Absolute miss = |10.542| = 10.542

The poll overstated the Democrat by 10.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72305, race ID 6245 (538 database).