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2020 President · NJ

Swayable · fieldwork ended 2020-10-25 (9 days before the election) · 386 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 61.8% · Republican 37.7%

D+24.1

The certified result

Democrat 57.33% · Republican 41.40%

D+15.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 61.8 − 37.7 = 24.10
  2. Actual margin = 57.334 − 41.397 = 15.937
  3. Signed miss = 24.10 − (15.937) = 8.162
  4. Absolute miss = |8.162| = 8.162

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72304, race ID 6242 (538 database).