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2020 President · NC

Swayable · fieldwork ended 2020-10-25 (9 days before the election) · 396 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 50.2% · Republican 47.5%

D+2.7

The certified result

Democrat 48.59% · Republican 49.93%

R+1.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50.2 − 47.5 = 2.70
  2. Actual margin = 48.586 − 49.934 = -1.348
  3. Signed miss = 2.70 − (-1.348) = 4.048
  4. Absolute miss = |4.048| = 4.048

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.0 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72303, race ID 6238 (538 database).