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2020 President · IN

Swayable · fieldwork ended 2020-10-25 (9 days before the election) · 301 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 42.3% · Republican 52.9%

R+10.6

The certified result

Democrat 40.96% · Republican 57.02%

R+16.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42.3 − 52.9 = -10.60
  2. Actual margin = 40.962 − 57.021 = -16.059
  3. Signed miss = -10.60 − (-16.059) = 5.459
  4. Absolute miss = |5.459| = 5.459

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72301, race ID 6226 (538 database).