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2020 President · IL

Swayable · fieldwork ended 2020-10-25 (9 days before the election) · 424 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 54.2% · Republican 43.1%

D+11.1

The certified result

Democrat 57.54% · Republican 40.55%

D+17.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54.2 − 43.1 = 11.10
  2. Actual margin = 57.542 − 40.553 = 16.989
  3. Signed miss = 11.10 − (16.989) = -5.888
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.888| = 5.888

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72300, race ID 6225 (538 database).