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2020 Senate · AZ

Swayable · fieldwork ended 2020-10-25 (9 days before the election) · 286 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 55.8% · Republican 44.2%

D+11.6

The certified result

Democrat 51.16% · Republican 48.81%

D+2.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 55.8 − 44.2 = 11.60
  2. Actual margin = 51.157 − 48.808 = 2.349
  3. Signed miss = 11.60 − (2.349) = 9.251
  4. Absolute miss = |9.251| = 9.251

The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72296, race ID 6268 (538 database).