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2020 Senate · AL

Swayable · fieldwork ended 2020-10-25 (9 days before the election) · 232 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 45.6% · Republican 54.4%

R+8.8

The certified result

Democrat 39.74% · Republican 60.09%

R+20.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.6 − 54.4 = -8.80
  2. Actual margin = 39.737 − 60.095 = -20.358
  3. Signed miss = -8.80 − (-20.358) = 11.559
  4. Absolute miss = |11.559| = 11.559

The poll overstated the Democrat by 11.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72295, race ID 6266 (538 database).