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2020 House · NH-2

Saint Anselm College Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2020-10-25 (9 days before the election) · 458 respondents · Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 54% · Republican 39%

D+15.0

The certified result

Democrat 53.90% · Republican 43.70%

D+10.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54 − 39 = 15.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.899 − 43.703 = 10.196
  3. Signed miss = 15.00 − (10.196) = 4.804
  4. Absolute miss = |4.804| = 4.804

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72233, race ID 8076 (538 database).